Villanova basketball mid-term grades - 247Sports

Given the 2019-20 Villanova basketball season is approaching the half-way mark, it seems like the appropriate time to take a look at how the ‘Nova players have performed to-date and hand out some “mid-term grades”.

Over the first six games of the season (the entirety of the November portion of the schedule), Jay Wright put out a starting line-up of: Collin Gillespie, Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels, Saddiq Bey and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.  That line-up went 4-2 to start the season (with both losses coming to great teams).

Starting in December, Cole Swider replaced Justin Moore in the starting line-up.  The Collin Gillespie, Cole Swider, Jermaine Samuels, Saddiq Bey and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl line-up started the last nine games and posted a record of 8-1.  Though Moore has not been starting, he has been averaging more minutes per game as the 6th man than he did as a starter.

The “most used” line-ups that Coach Wright is utilizing of late are the two aforementioned starting line-ups, JRE-Swider-Bey-Moore-Gillespie and Swider-Bey-Samuels-Moore-Gillespie.  It is worth noting that when Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is on the bench, Coach Wright is more likely to use Swider-Bey as the two bigs or Bey-Slater as the two bigs than he is to play Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree.

The Cats are scoring 37.9% of their points from three-point range, 46.6% from two-point range and 15.5% from the free throw line.  46.4% of the Wildcat’s field goal attempts are from three-point range.  This is a significant reliance on the three-ball - but that is done with purpose given that statistically, the three-pointer and shots at the basket provide far more “bang for the buck” than the mid-range jumper.

The win against Georgetown on Saturday was a step in the right direction for the Cats in terms of getting better quality looks from three-point range and having the majority of the three-pointers being taken by the players better equipped to knock them down from deep.  Against Creighton, Villanova feel somewhat into the trap of players taking the three-point shot that the defense was willing to give up instead of working for a better shot.  The Cats will shoot a higher percentage from deep range when the extra pass is made on the perimeter or a kick-out pass is made on a dribble-drive move or post entry pass to get the right players better quality looks from deep.

Here is a chart that breaks out the 3PFG percentages for the shooters and “non-shooters” both overall and for Big East conference games.  Reasonable "take-aways" from the data are: that Cole Swider and Justin Moore are struggling shooting the ball from deep range in league play and that Jermaine Samuels has to be very selective from three-point range.  Bryan Antoine’s sample set is too small to draw any conclusions - he was a good enough 3PFG shooter in HS and AAU that he should be encouraged to continue shooting when open from deep.  The Georgetown game swung the pendulum back in the direction of having the proven 3PFG shooters take the majority of the shots taken from deep.

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Villanova basketball mid-term grades - 247Sports
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