A political betting site that allows people to buy and sell shares that reflect the odds of an event occurring shows President Trump’s chances of completing his first term in office have grown steadily since impeachment began.
The trading on the statement that Trump will stay in office until he completes his current term opened at 70 cents on Oct. 31 and closed at 84 cents Wednesday on PredictIt, a political betting website that bills itself as a stock market for politics with more than a million shares trading.
A share price of zero would reflect that there is no chance of an event happening. A $1 price would show the event as certain to occur — in the view of bettors. Buyers of shares, as in the stock market, make or lose money when they sell based on where the share price has gone since they bought it.
Trump would have to be convicted in his impeachment trial, die, or quit for those betting against him to win.
The House made its impeachment case in November and December across weeks of hearings and depositions by current and former White House officials, with some testifying publicly and others behind closed doors.
On Oct. 31, nearly one month after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi began impeachment proceedings against Trump, the price fell to the lowest point in the past 90 days — 69 cents — but since then has moved steadily upward, reaching a high of 90 cents on Jan. 2 and again on Jan. 4. It was at 89 cents last Friday before dropping two points to close at 87 cents on Saturday as the president's impeachment team began making its case in the Senate. At 5 p.m., Wednesday shares were at 84 cents.
Bloomberg Businessweek called PredictIt "the go-to place to gamble on U.S. politics." More than 50 million shares have traded in the market betting who will win the November general election, with Trump at 5 p.m. Wednesday trading at 47 cents to Sen. Bernie Sanders's 27 cents. Another bet has Sanders trouncing his nearest competitors in the Iowa caucuses at 62 cents to Joe Biden's 28 cents and in New Hampshire's primary with 79 cents to Biden and Buttigieg's 10 cents per share each.
The share price on whether former Trump national security adviser John Bolton will testify publicly in the Senate by March 31, two weeks after his book is scheduled to be published, had a buy price of 27 cents.
While betting on political races is illegal in the United States, an exemption for academic research granted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, allows the company to get around this by offering to run the site for free and providing data for academic research. The site is owned and operated by the university, with support from Aristotle Inc., a Washington political consultancy.
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January 30, 2020 at 12:00PM
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Odds of Trump finishing term have grown during impeachment: Betting website - Washington Examiner
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