DETROIT -- Ten years ago this week, the Detroit Tigers announced a multiyear contract extension for a 26-year-old starting pitcher named Justin Verlander.
The move was a smashing success for the Tigers, who won the American League pennant in 2012 with Verlander at the helm of one of the best rotations in the game.
They haven’t done anything like it since.
With the team poised to begin “building back up” in 2020 after three years of rebuilding, is it time to break the decade-long streak and sign a player to a long-term deal before he reaches free agency?
Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd might be the best -- and perhaps only -- candidate for a similar deal on the 2020 Tigers, but a new crop of youngsters working their way up the system could offer some intriguing debates.
Boyd has made clear he’d love to be part of the Tigers’ long-term plans; the team has yet to reciprocate the interest.
“That would be cool,” Boyd said. “I’m so grateful to wear the Olde English D. I want to win a championship here.”
Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos (9) blows a bubble with gum in the sixth inning of their MLB game against the Houston Astros at Comerica Park in Detroit, on Friday, July 28, 2017. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com) Mike Mulholland | MLive.comMike Mulholland | MLive.com
How the system works
The Tigers had already come quite close to a World Series championship in Verlander’s rookie year in 2006 and they had every expectation that more would be in the future when they signed Verlander to his first big extension.
The benefit to the Tigers was clear: By locking up one of the game’s top young pitchers through age 31, they were controlling his prime years for what could prove to be a relative bargain.
Here’s a quick primer on what that means: For every day spent in the big leagues, a player earns a day of MLB service time. A player is said to be under “team control” until he reaches six seasons of service time. Beginning at about three seasons, a player is eligible for arbitration, which can increase his salary.
For most players, teams are content to simply offer contracts from year to year. That’s what happened in the case of Nicholas Castellanos, who earned $3 million, $6 million and $10 million on one-year contracts in the final three years of his Tigers’ tenure. He surpassed the magic six-year MLB service time threshold and became a free agent after the 2019 season. His reward? A four-year, $62 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds in free agency.
But sometimes long-term extensions are mutually beneficial. The team might be seeking “cost certainty," the ability to know exactly how much a player is going to make in the future without worrying about the vagaries of the arbitration process. They might even be willing to overpay for those arbitration years if a player is willing to relinquish one or more of his free-agency years, essentially extending the window of “team control” to seven, eight or nine seasons.
For a player, the biggest allure of an extension is the guaranteed money. If they have an injury or a bad year, they can’t be kicked to the curb without being paid every last penny they are owed. The risk is that they’ll lose money in the long run by delaying their free agency.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander (35) looks on from the dugout in the first inning of their MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in Detroit, Friday, July 14, 2017. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com) Mike Mulholland | MLive.comMike Mulholland | MLive.com
Verlander’s first deal was a bargain
That’s what happened to Verlander -- or, more accurately, what could have happened to Verlander if the Tigers had been a stingier organization.
If Verlander had never signed that first extension and hit free agency after his Cy Young and MVP season in 2011, he would have cleaned up. Verlander would have been the best pitcher on the market by far.
Instead, that honor went to lefty C.J. Wilson, who signed a respectable five-year, $75 million with the Los Angeles Angels.
What would have Verlander earned? Maybe $150 million? More?
Instead, he was stuck with what amounted to a relatively paltry three-year, $60 million deal -- the amount remaining on that extension with the Tigers.
Don’t worry: It worked out just fine for Verlander, thanks to late owner Michael Ilitch’s generosity and largesse.
Before the 2013 season, with two years left on his current deal, Verlander signed a second extension worth another five years and $140 million.
That one turned out better for Verlander than the first. In fact, the contract was considered under water when Verlander was being shopped on the trade market in 2017. No team claimed Verlander on waivers and the Tigers had to actually pitch in $8 million annually to defray the contract and convince the Houston Astros to pull the trigger on the trade.
Of course, the final postscript is that Verlander has rejuvenated his career in Houston and become perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last two-and-half seasons.
He signed another extension with the Astros that will carry him through the 2021 season. When all is said and done, he will have earned an estimated $226 million in baseball. So it’s safe to say he did OK.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Matthew Boyd smiles in the dugout against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning of a baseball game in Detroit, Tuesday, July 23, 2019. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)AP
Does extending Boyd make sense?
Boyd has earned a mere $9 million so far in his career (including his $5.3 million guaranteed salary in 2020), so he’s got a long way to go to reach Verlander’s rarified heights.
One of the biggest impediments to negotiating a long-term deal with Boyd is determining his fair market value.
The 2019 season was, in many ways, a breakout year. His strikeouts surged and he looked like an ace for much of first part of season. But his ERA finished at 4.56 and he was vexed by homers as the year went on.
There’s another factor that makes the debate more complicated. Boyd just turned 29, so he’s not a youngster. He’s not scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2022 season. He’ll be 32 on Opening Day in 2023.
The Tigers probably aren’t prepared to shell out big bucks to a 29-year-old with an ERA of 4.92 in 645 career innings. But let’s say the Tigers love Boyd’s work ethic, leadership, clubhouse and community presence and want him to lead a young pitching staff out of the rebuild.
Even if they decide to make him a competitive offer, they’d still seek to have some sort of discount baked in. Al Avila would be saying to Boyd, in effect, “Despite the extremely volatile nature of pitching, we are still willing to give you guaranteed money that we don’t have to. So we want something in return.”
Maybe the Tigers would seek some team-friendly option years eating away a year or two of Boyd’s free agency in exchange for guaranteed money now.
From Boyd’s perspective, that piece of mind could be tempting. But he also risks severely hamstringing his potential earnings, maybe forever. A pitcher his age might get only one crack at free agency. It’s not something to give up lightly.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize (74) throws the ball to first base during their full-squad spring training practice at TigerTown in Lakeland, Florida on Tuesday, February 19, 2019. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com) Mike Mulholland | MLive.comMike Mulholland | MLive.com
Long-term deals aren’t just for stars
Make no mistake: The Tigers have splent gobs of money in the last decade, making many a free agent and his agent rich. But it’s been almost exclusively on players from outside the organization -- like Victor Martinez (4 years, $50 million) and Prince Fielder (9 years, $214 million) -- or internal players who had already reached free agency -- like Anibal Sanchez (5 years, $80) and Martinez again (4 years, $68 million).
Only twice in the last 10 years have the Tigers even bought out arbitration years with a contract of longer than one year. The team signed Ryan Raburn to a two-year deal before the 2011 season and signed J.D. Martinez to a two-year deal before the 2016 season. Neither contract included free-agency years.
If the Tigers want to follow a similar path, they could sign a few non-star players to pre-free agency deals. Maybe someone like Niko Goodrum or JaCoby Jones, players who could be valuable role players even if they eventually fall out of the everyday lineup when the team returns to contention.
The Cleveland Indians, the Tigers’ neighbors in the AL Central, championed that approach, trying to sign not just stars but also lesser-known players like Josh Tomlin or Brandon Guyer.
The deals didn’t always work out, but they gave the club “cost certainty.”
That may be less of a concern in Detroit. While the free-spending days of the elder Mr. Ilitch are probably over, the Tigers are likely to have a little bit more payroll flexibility in the years to come. At least as compared to the Indians or Pirates or Rays of the league.
So if not Boyd and not the role players, who’s next to watch for a possible extension?
It’s those youngsters who will begin to arrive in 2020 and 2021: Pitchers Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning. Maybe even infielder Paredes.
Signing very young players -- sometimes even before they’re played in the big leagues -- is increasingly common. And it’s not just happening with mega-prospects.
The Mariners signed first baseman Evan White to a long-term deal just three months ago. White, a first-round pick in 2017, is a consensus top-100 prospect, not a consensus top-10.
Two years ago, the Phillies did something similar with infielder Scott Kingery.
The deals carry some risk for the clubs, but most of the heavy spending pushed onto team options that can simply be declined if the player isn’t worth the investment.
And every once in a while, the team strikes the lottery.
With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on the imminent arrival of the Tigers’ crop of top prospects. Yes, it would be great if Mize or Skubal turned into a No. 1 starter. But what would be even better for the Tigers? If that No. 1 starter was locked up on a long-term, team-friendly deal.
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