The Astros’ championship window was always narrowing — before Justin Verlander blew out his elbow, before José Altuve shriveled into a shell of himself, before the coronavirus pandemic placed uncertainty around the financial aspects of baseball’s open market and before the team’s sign-stealing scheme was exposed.
Contracts are expiring and players are aging. Those two facts remain despite any of the other circumstances enveloping this franchise. It does not diminish the devastation of Saturday’s news.
Verlander’s impending Tommy John surgery provides a profound blow to the Astros’ short and long-term future. Answers are more apparent for the immediate needs.
After this 60-game season ends, general manager James Click must spend his next few months formulating a plan to address the broader questions, ones without easy answers and that could redirect some of the franchise’s focus.
“It’s impossible to say that, on some level, it does not shrink the window,” Click said on a Zoom call Saturday. “No team can lose even the anticipation of having a Justin Verlander come back and look themselves in the mirror and say honestly that that doesn’t hurt your chances of winning a championship.”
Whether the 25-26 Astros have a legitimate shot at a 2020 World Series title is debatable. Their offense is average and sapped of power. Their bullpen is too walk-prone. Still, as of Saturday night, FanGraphs gave the Astros a 5.3 percent chance to win the title. The soon-to-be American League West champion Oakland A’s had a 5.1 percent chance.
“The main thing is we’ve got to relax and draw our circle even closer and tighter,” manager Dusty Baker said. “We’re built for the playoffs. There would be some guys who will go into the bullpen that will help our bullpen be even better, and we have some guys who have been there before. That helps a lot. What we have is what we have, and so we have got to figure out a way to be better and make it better.”
At least outwardly, the Astros maintained cautious optimism that Verlander could return for at least the 2020 postseason. During a phone call on Tuesday, Click and Verlander discussed a possible return on Monday against the Mariners. One day later, Verlander felt pain in his elbow during a simulated game.
Options to replace him in the postseason are plentiful. José Urquidy, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are performing well. Lance McCullers Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance, but only in Minute Maid Park. Putting any combination behind Zack Greinke affords them a fighting chance, but obviously nothing that compares to the comfort Verlander’s presence would lend.
“The shot in the arm that you get of having a guy like that come in at the end of the season and be ready to go for the playoffs cannot be replicated,” Click said. “We’re going to have to generate that emotion internally. We’re going to have to generate that fire, that emotion and that competitive spirit without that boost.”
More uncertainty arrives when the season ends. Click, in his first full winter as a major league general manager, must confront franchise-altering questions that stem from Verlander’s loss.
All three starting outfielders are entering free agency. The team could non-tender up to three relievers, including closer Roberto Osuna. Carlos Correa, whom former general manager Jeff Luhnow reportedly talked about in trades last winter, is entering his final year of club control. McCullers and Greinke, too.
Click has an outfield to rebuild, a bullpen to bolster and, now, the question of whether to add another front line starter — all while adhering to his plan to build a sustainable franchise. Baseball America ranks the Astros’ farm system the second-worst in the sport. Bolstering it in some way seems mandatory for a general manager who preaches sustainability.
“This is why organizational depth is going to be such a priority going forward,” Click said. “Obviously we never anticipate this many injuries, this number of players going down in sequence, but if we are going to have a sustained, successful run we are going to have to have that depth at the upper minors where these kids can step in and take the ball.”
On Saturday, Click would not answer whether there is an insurance policy within Verlander’s contract that would come into play during the 2021 season he will now miss. As of now, Verlander is scheduled to earn $33 million in 2021 — part of the two-year, $66 million extension given by Luhnow last February.
Including Verlander, the Astros have $125,916,666 committed to seven players on guaranteed contracts for 2021. In theory, it gives Click financial flexibility to remake his 2021 team on the free-agent market. Owner Jim Crane said in July the team is “in a position to be aggressive, no matter what the market looks like.”
Is Click’s top priority a bona fide ace to pair with Greinke and McCullers atop the rotation? Or is it more offensive-minded given this season’s dramatic dip in production from almost all of their returning players?
And what of the aforementioned farm system, one tapped into heavily this season due to the many injuries at the major league level. Javier, Brandon Bielak and Luis Garcia showed competence as big league starters. All in all, Houston’s rookies have performed valiantly, inviting hope for the Verlander-less future, but concern about the depth behind them.
“With these young pitchers, there are going to be some bumps in the road, but I think we’ve seen a lot of bright spots out of these kids as well,” Click said.
“But it’s also going to fall on guys like Greinke, guys like Ver-,” Click continued before catching his mistake and offering a resigned smile.
“Guys like McCullers. We’re going to need the veterans in that group to step up and lead the way but the talent that this organization has developed on the mound has been on display.”
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September 20, 2020 at 05:53AM
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